Data insights into the EHF Champions League Women final

As was the case last season, the best defence in the EHF Champions League Women ultimately prevailed — Györi Audi ETO KC. No one was as good defensively over the entire season as the Hungarian side, who only conceded opponent-adjusted 22.8 goals per 50 possessions. Even though in the final Györ played not only against the best attack of the competition in Odense Håndbold (opponent-adjusted 28.0 goals per 50 possessions over the whole season), but also against the team that seemed to have found their strong defence's kryptonite, Per Johansson’s team succeeded in the end.

Rating and comparing teams in a fair way when they have not all played against the same opponents, and with differences in the opponents’ quality, is difficult. One step for a more meaningful comparison is rating teams by numbers that are adjusted for possessions played, because it makes the teams actually comparable since the raw number of goals is not only influenced by efficiency, but also by the number of possessions — whether a team and their opponents play rather fast or slow.

In addition, over the whole season, the numbers can also be adjusted for the opponents’ strength. The adjustment is done by calculating how many goals (conceded) per 50 possessions would be expected for each game and team by the number of goals the opponents scored and conceded per 50 possessions in their other games. The so-called “garbage time”, when the game is already decided, is also filtered out. The differences to the actual goals scored and conceded can then be added to the goals scored or conceded per 50 possessions to have this adjusted rating.

In the group stage, Györ had by far their worst defensive games of the season against the Danish side, with 30.7 and 29.6 goals conceded per 50 possessions, but that wasn't the case in the final. In the end, with 23.7 goals conceded per 50 possessions, they finished with a slightly worse number than their average, while this was Odense’s fourth worst offensive performance of the season, a result the defending champions are more than happy with.

Experience was key

In Györ’s only defeat of the season at home, against Odense in October 2024, they struggled to force turnovers — in no other game they forced less than 7.9 turnovers per 50 possessions against Odense. In addition, they had massive problems with their opponents' shooting in both of the first two meetings. With 74.3 per cent in the game in Odense, they allowed their highest opponent’s shooting percentage of the season and the third-highest of any team in the entire season, and with 70.0 per cent in the game in Odense, they had their second-highest.

In the final, however, they had this under control and showed they had learned their lessons from the previous games. 13.2 forced turnovers per 50 possessions and an opponent shooting percentage of 61.5 were average figures for the Hungarian side and Odense's fourth and fifth-worst of the season, respectively.

Györ themselves only managed to score on 58.0 per cent of their attempts, but it was the turnover duel that made the difference — which they clearly won with just 7.9 turnovers per 50 possessions. According to head coach Per Johansson, one reason for that difference was their experience: “I have been here four times and now many of my players can tell the ones who haven’t been here how it is working. That's why we are getting calmer and calmer.”

The outstanding players

Three players scored six goals for Györ in the final, with only Kari Brattset Dale managing to do so without a single miss. Only eight times this season has a player managed to score more field goals without a single miss from the field. However, as has been the case throughout the season, it was not the attack but the defence that was key to Györ's success, and here the line player had an extremely important role in the centre block, earning her the MVP award.

If Odense had turned the game around in the end, there would have been no way around Katrine Lunde as MVP. The 45-year-old legendary goalkeeper, who seems to have a fountain of youth in her garden, achieved an outstanding save percentage of 42.9 in the final. Despite Györ's outstanding defence, Odense's goalkeepers achieved a better save percentage than the winners (36.6 compared to 22.9) thanks to Lunde’s performance.

All of Lunde's saves also led to her team gaining possession. Out of 175 goalkeepers who faced at least 28 shots in a game this season, only nine managed to save a higher proportion of these kinds of saves on all shots on goal. Only Györ’s Sandra Toft managed that in the first leg of the quarter-finals against HB Ludwigsburg.

But Lunde wasn’t just great in the final, she was also fantastic throughout the season, as no other goalkeeper came close to the Norwegian's 37.1 per cent save rate.

However, in the final, Lunde only came on the court when her team was trailing 12:5. With her playing, Odense scored five more goals than Györ, but in the end even her strong performance was not enough to outshine Györ's overall outstanding defence. 

More from data analyst Julian Rux can be found at Handballytics.de. There you can read his latest articles, in which he analyses all kinds of handball topics from new, data-based perspectives. You can also find him on Instagram, Bluesky, Threads and WhatsApp Channels.

Photos © kolektiff