The lessons learned from 10,000 simulations

With both the Machineseeker EHF Champions League and the EHF Champions League Women having taken a break at the turn of the year, this is the perfect time to look ahead to the rest of the season and see what the developments so far could mean for the rest of 2024/25.

Among both the men's and women's teams, compared to the actual results, the pre-season expectations and statistical performances during the season have differed. The best example of this is SC Magdeburg, who went into the Machineseeker EHF Champions League season as one of the favourites and have a positive goal difference, the fifth most effective defence (27.5 goals conceded per 50 possessions) and an above average offence (28.2 goals scored per 50 possessions), despite only three wins from 10 games.

Another example is Metz Handball, who were not considered the top favourites at the start of the season. Now, they are the only unbeaten team in the EHF Champions League Women and the only team that ranks in the top four in both offensive and defensive efficiency, with 27.2 goals scored per 50 possessions and 24.1 goals conceded per 50 possessions.

To see how the developments so far might shape the rest of the season, both the EHF Champions League Women and the Machineseeker EHF Champions League were simulated 10,000 times. In addition to the results of the matches played and the current standings, offensive and defensive efficiency statistics as well as long-term ratings of the teams were considered for every remaining match in the group stage and each potential game in the knockout phase. The result of these simulations can then be seen as the probability of winning the tournament.

EHF Champions League Women

On the women’s side, Györi Audi ETO KC remain the clear favourites, after starting the new season in that position. In more than three-quarters of the simulations, Györ made it to the EHF FINAL4; in more than half, to the final; and in more than one-third, they were crowned champions again.

Györ's opponents in last year’s final, HB Ludwigsburg, are currently in sixth place in group B and only reached the final 2.6 per cent of the time in the simulations. Last year, however, it was a similar story in the group stage. They finished the group phase in sixth place and, after 12 games, their probability of reaching the final was also only 2.6 per cent. That shows how unlikely Ludwigsburg’s run was last year and that a repetition is not impossible, but also not likely.

As mentioned, Metz are in first place in group A. However, in terms of who wins the EHF Champions League in most of the simulations, they came in third. FTC-Rail Cargo Hungaria were slightly ahead of them. One of FTC’s advantages is that the remaining direct clash against Metz will see the Hungarian side play at home.

Machineseeker EHF Champions League

In the men's competition, the top favourites look similar to the women’s: The defending champions, Barça. They are already safely through to the next round and, according to the model, are almost certain to go straight through to the quarter-finals. In almost three-quarters of the simulations, they made it at least as far as the TruckScout24 EHF FINAL4 2025; in nearly half of the simulations, they reached the final; and in around one-third of the simulations, they won the title. In all three scenarios, Barça’s results were the highest.

Magdeburg, also in group B, are the most interesting team. Although they are currently in sixth place in their group, the model saw them as much stronger. Direct progress for them is practically impossible, yet the model saw them as having almost a better chance of reaching the final and winning than the currently much better placed OTP Bank - PICK Szeged.

The Hungarian side still have a good chance of advancing to the quarter-finals without an intermediate step in the play-off round, while Magdeburg are likely to face the third- or fourth-placed team from group A, which makes their possible path much tougher than that of Szeged’s. Thus, SCM’s quarter-final probabilities are much lower. But the model saw their team as better, especially when all the injured players return, and therefore saw a higher probability in Magdeburg winning the competition.

Kielce are currently one point ahead of Magdeburg, but their probabilities were much lower across the board than those of the 2022/23 winners. There are two reasons for that — partly because Kielce’s remaining schedule was seen as tougher than Magdeburg’s as, among others, they still have to play Barça, and partly because the model did not consider Kielce to be stronger in the direct comparison against Magdeburg, whom they will face directly after the break, on February 12.

Group A is led by Veszprém HC, on 18 points — one more than Barça in group B. But the model still saw Veszprém as not quite as strong as the Catalan side. Nevertheless, the simulations said they have the second-highest probabilities across the board.

Before the season, Sporting CP were only considered outsiders, but after a furious performance so far — they still have the most effective defence in the competition with 25.3 goals conceded per 50 possessions — their chances, according to the model, increased significantly. They made it to the TruckScout24 EHF FINAL4 2025 in over one-third of the simulations and even lifted the trophy in 7.1 per cent of them.

More from data analyst Julian Rux can be found at Handballytics.de. There you can read his latest articles, in which he analyses all kinds of handball topics from new, data-based perspectives. You can also find him on Instagram, Bluesky, Threads and WhatsApp Channels.

Photos: Kévin Clement / Cedosa380 / Pixsell photo and video agency / Eroll Popova / Kielce / Kovács Anikó / Győri Audi ETO KC