Stats counter: Can Györ's defence lead them back to the title?
Throughout the course of the EHF Champions League Women and the Machineseeker EHF Champions League, data analyst Julian Rux provides the handball community with deep insights into the numbers behind the game, analysing what the data says about teams’ and players’ performances. In this edition, he previews the EHF FINAL4 Women 2025.
However, they were not always convincing in attack. An opponent-adjusted 25.3 goals per 50 possessions means they only have the seventh-best attack in the competition. They are average in almost all statistical values for offence but one.
With 84.0%, they have the third-best seven-metre percentage in the EHF Champions League and are the only participants in the EHF FINAL4 Women 2025 to achieve an above-average value here. This is largely attributable to Dione Housheer, who is the best seven-metre penalty shooter among all 22 players with at least 20 attempts, with 86.5 per cent.
All of these numbers, together with past numbers, were fed into statistical models to calculate the probabilities of winning the EHF Champions League 2025. Györ emerged as the top favourite. The model predicts a 33.5 percent chance of them winning.
All focus on Henny Reistad at Esbjerg
Györ’s semi-final opponents, Team Esbjerg, have the second-best attack with an opponent-adjusted 27.3 goals per 50 possessions. They are among the best in practically all offensive categories. They have the fourth-best shooting percentage (62.7%), the second-fewest turnovers (8.9 per 50 possessions), the second-most second chances (after 10.6 per cent of their missed shots) and are blocked the second fewest (only 2.2 per cent of their shots). However, they were forced into two of their three worst attacking performances of the season by Györ in their two clashes in the group stage.
The central figure and outstanding player in Esbjerg's attack is Henny Reistad. The Norwegian is responsible for 24.7 per cent of the ends of her team’s attacks by a non-penalty shot, turnover or received seven-metre penalty, which is also the highest figure in the competition.
Reistad is also known to score particularly well from the field. Her field goal percentage of 67.3 per cent is the best of all 18 players with at least 100 shots. In addition, she rarely loses the ball. Her 2.3 turnovers per game are the 17th-highest figure, but as a proportion of all her completed attacks this is just 16.1 per cent, which is behind Daria Dmitrieva (15.5%) the second-lowest among all 20 backcourt players with at least 15.0 per cent of their team’s completed attacks.
Defensively, Esbjerg are in a very respectable fourth place with an opponent-adjusted 24.0 goals conceded per 50 possessions, although the gap to the top is greater than the place might suggest. They have the second-fewest suspension minutes per game (5.3) and force the third-most turnovers (11.5 per 50 possessions). In addition, their goalkeepers have a combined save percentage of 33.8 per cent, the third-best number of the competition.
Metz play with pace
In attack, Metz rely particularly on speed, as only Brest Bretagne Handball have faster attacks with 29.0 seconds per possession. However, this has not always led to success, as they only have the fifth-best attack with an opponent-adjusted 26.2 goals per 50 possessions. Although they have the third-best shooting percentage at 63.6 percent, they also concede an above-average number of turnovers at 10.8 per 50 possessions.
In defence, speed plays the opposite role. With 35.0 seconds per possession, they force their opponents into longer attacks than any other team. This leads to the second-best defence with an opponent-adjusted 23.1 goals conceded per 50 possessions.
They allow the second lowest opponent shooting percentage at 55.9 percent including third in opponent field goal percentage at 55.0 and second in opponent seven-metre penalty shooting at 65.8%. In the latter, goalkeeper Zsófi Szemerey stands out in particular, leading the competition with 36.8% of seven-metre penalty shots saved.
They also block 5.3 percent of their opponents' shots, which is the third-best figure. Allison Pineau stands out, leading the EHF Champions League with 1.1 blocks per game.
The model sees their probability of holding the trophy in their hands on Sunday at 21.1 per cent.
Can Odense’s attack be stopped?
Odense Håndbold have the best attack in the EHF Champions League with an opponent-adjusted 28.3 goals per 50 possessions. This is largely due to their outstanding shooting percentage of 65.0 per cent, the best in the competition.
Even without seven-metre penalties, they are the most efficient team with 64.1 per cent successful shots. It is therefore hardly surprising that they have the player with the best field goal percentage of all 82 players with at least 50 attempts in Maren Aardahl (84.2%).
In addition, Thale Rushfeldt Deila’s 62.6 per cent from the field are the third-highest among all 18 players with at least 100 attempts.
In defence, however, they have clear problems. An opponent-adjusted 25.0 goals conceded per 50 possessions means they are only in 10th place. The thing going well for them at the defensive end is that they only concede second chances on 11.4 per cent of their opponents’ misses. No other team is better.
However, their goalkeepers could give them hope. Katrine Lunde, the goalkeeper with the best save percentage in the competition, arrived in February with 36.2 per cent. However, she only played four of her 11 games for Odense this season. Althea Reinhardt has the third-best save percentage with 35.5 but was only able to play 10 games due to injury. With both on board, the defensive problem could be solved quickly.
Still, the model sees them winning only in 20.9 per cent of the cases, slightly lower than their semi-final opponents Metz. One of the reasons for this could be that recent years have shown that the top defensive players tend to prevail.
But, who knows, maybe this is the year the best offence prevails.
